Sensex: A long way to go up!!!

It is my personal view that the sensex might not only clock 21k in the next bull run, but it'd go a long way up from there. We might see figures like 30k-35k in the sensex :-)

Want to know the reasons why I feel so? Here's it:

1) Most of the PSUs like ONGC, BEML, BHEL have crossed their all time highs (they were at all time highs when market was at 21k in 2008) already when the sensex is still floating around at around 15000. If you notice carefully these PSUs are all in the list of 30 companies that make up the BSE index.
2) Hero Honda which also lists in the BSE 30 already clocked a all time high of around 1300 regardless of the recession time and doing exceptionally well.
3) Also, companies like Reliance Industries, Rel Infra, Tata Steel, Tata Motors are far away from their all time highs.
4) We've seen in the past looking at the charts sensex was at around 7k in early 2000 or so, went down to 3k and from there we had a bull run till 21k and we went back to 7k later.
5) Now Rs.10 looks the same like what Re.1 ten years ago. Which means considering inflation, even the current valuations of stocks today will look attractive to investors in future. Just for instance, HDFC was available at Rs.60 or so during the decade of 90s and where it had been in 2008? Rs. 4000. If one has picked up the bluechips when the sensex was at 8k during Deepavali 2008 as well as during March 2009 and held on to the stocks, we'll have 5-6 times in near future.
6) The bull run which will happen next will strongly be led by infrastructure stocks and the raw materials required for building infrastructure (metals, cement etc). My father had sold all the stocks of HDFC which he had got when HDFC went up to Rs.100 during 90s. When I came to know about this, I was quite amused and I felt what a mistake he did. :-) So, the horizon of investment for bluechips has to be for more than a decade.
7) The disinvestment and deregulation that the Govt is doing currently is very healthy sign for the market. The PSUs will go up and will continue to break their old all time highs. Stocks like ONGC and SAIL (Steel Authority of India Limited) will continue to grow and will keep the market sentiment upbeat.

If the Govt. of India carries on and consolidates on the reforms (we can recall that Vajpayee was one of the major reformer PMs of India), the Sensex has "a long way to go up".

The lesson, hold the bluechip stocks for a long long time as long as the bluechip companies are healthy enough. There's no reason why the market will continue to break its old highs. For investing in equity, one has to be aware of theory of inversion, more details in the link here.

Disclaimer: As mentioned previously, this is my personal view and based on facts from the past. Since in our India, anything can happen, it will be the risk of the investor to invest into the market based on the details I mentioned in the above blog.