execute the terrorists!

There goes off another bomb in pune today, innocents die again and I felt very bad, let down by this system which first lets go the ppl who attacked parliament, the shameless police who didn't even bother to handcuff them and let them escape.
Tons and tons of illegal migrants from Bangladesh have infiltrated into the Bengal and the north east, still there is no stopping. Kashmiri Pandits driven off from Kashmir and now they are demanding a separate country of their own. With prades being under the Maya jaal, no laws apply to children producing factories, no limits are in place. if the population is growing at such pace, why won't there be poverty?
It is the corruption that we have underneath that's making us feel down everytime. This time even it has let us down.
There's urgent need for revolution in this country. Send a strict message to the terrorists by executing the ones imprisoned including kasab.

Watch out for the year ahead!

Larsen, Punj had disappointing numbers and cited reasons that in reality, they are in essence facing a lot of hurdles -- the blamelist is obvious. The government for doing away with construction majors and joining hands with second-tier construction companies for infrastructure projects.

It's a pity that this is happening, we've already seen engineering marvels around us with L&T and Punj Lloyd [for e.g. the NH4 stretch at Karnataka and Maharashtra border -- http://www.nhai.org/nh4.asp] leading it, but they are not being awarded projects of future by GoI. Punj Lloyd is at times regarded as the "next Larsen". But, the point is: Why is the government acting like slacker? The most obvious of the answers is corruption. If they hand over the projects to the construction giants, they won't be able to fill their bellies. If they go with local construction companies, they both can fill up their bellies. This is disheartening -- if our country wants to see the infra boom in reality, the government should be serious and more diligent at awarding projects as well. Lest, Delhi-metro like mishaps will continue to happen, for they've been poorly built.

Alongside construction, the raw materials -- steel [may it be TISCO, SAIL or JSW] and cement [Grasim, Ultratech] are something which I've always suggested to buy in over the past year. The key remains in the execution of the projects like NHAI's planned green-field projects (~11,000 km stretch cement roads planned) promised by Kamalnath happen in reality over days and years to come.

The budget is the pivot for Feb. But, I'm certainly not optimistic, as it has always been the case, our FM Pranob will come up with a "aam aadmi" mask and shall say "this budget is for common peeepul". Food prices are soaring and our ministers are shrugging off the critics, the inflation is blowing out of proportions. I don't know what is actually being done on ground in the name of NREGA. The "peepul" who ultimately suffer is "aam aadmi".

A single statement from Sonia-jee has devastated the whole of Andhra. It's been ripped apart, deprived of the amenities after many private sector companies decided to make a move-out; which still continues to happen. This might prove costly for the GDP numbers that we seem to be overly bullish on. Sarcastically, I feel I should also ask for my own state now. :P

Ending 2009 with a bang!

It had been a long while since I had travelled along western ghats and thought to make use of this vacation to plan a trip to my favourite w-ghats.

My parents were in Bangalore last month and when I was looking for tickets to Harihar which is my native, my mother asked me if I can get the tickets for Karnataka Sampark Kranti (KSK) - yeshwantpur to hazrath nizamuddin. Luckily the tickets were available for the next day 29th dec 2009. I was told the train is superfast and has a halt of 2 mins at Tumkur and thereafter would stop directly at Davangere. But unfortunately that didn't happen although the train was superfast.

When we arrived at Harihar, it's then when we planned a trip for 31st dec. The initial plan was to visit Idagunji and Murudeshwar. It came as a blessing in disguise to visit temples and to pray for a better year ahead.

We started our trip at 5.45 am in the morning. We crossed Honnali and were on the way to Shikaripur which accidently happens to be Mr.Yedyurappa's constituency. I hadn't been there before and had always assumed must be a nice place as it's afterall CM's place until I went there. Damn! What sort of development Yeddi talks about when it's shit at home?

When I asked the driver, how far is jog falls he said it's on the way. This is when trip got interesting. I had seen Jog falls when i was very young. At 9:30 am we were in Sagar and around 25 kms from Jog. Although I knew it wouldn't be a rainy season experience, i was enthusiastic.

"Maanavanagi huttid mele enen kandi? Saayo tanaka samsaaradolaga ganda-gundi.heri kondju hogodilla sattag bandi. Irodrolage omme nodu jogad gundi" -- this is a kannada song which means "what all have you seen oh dear after you were born? There's always the material life till you die. You don't carry any of this materialistic wealth when you die, watch Jog's gorge once till you are alive."

We started climbing again after watching falls only to realize it was noon and already we were sweating. Our next destination was Idagunji for which we had to complete our journey along NH 206 (tumkur-honnavara) and then head south along NH 17 for about 15 kms towards Bhatkal. The Ganapati murthi of Idagunji resembles the Ganapati of Ganapati pule (near Ratnagiri - konkan) but this one's black. We prayed for peace and headed further south for another 5 kms or so on NH 17 towards mathobar murudeshwar. This is when i saw the konkan rail track and murudeshwar railway station too something to think about the next time i plan a trip here, afterall who would miss the journey of the beautiful konkan rail.

When i reached murudeshwar i was just blown away. The temple is situated along arabian sea coast and it is awesome. Since it was a lunar eclipse on Jan 1st 2010 the temple was to open late at 3pm and we meanwhile had lunch at Kamat. Thereafter we went into temple. The vicinity is so clean and neat.

We thought of Kollur mookambika but had to give it up as it was getting late.. Said next time! We returned along the same route NH-206 from honnavara just to give a recap of whereall we had been during the day.

While returning back, saw a nice white tata sumo grande sped past us.. Nazar ko kya chahiye khwab thode zyada... :)

Get some steel in your lives

Steel has always been something used in common - as a synonym for strength, a synonym for meltdown, the backbone for megastructures. This is why you've got to buy into steel stocks when there's a real meltdown, for it'll become your backbone in a long-term.

Stock market took a pounding dive into the red sea and remained in what I could call "an abyss" for almost 6 months, many of the giant steel makers everywhere around the world (India is not an only exception) were reeling under global steel demand and they too saw a meltdown from the alltime high P/E levels of 14 to alltime low P/E values of even less than 1 within 6 months. This is when shares of Tata Steel fell real fast from ~1000 to ~150, JSW steel saw a plung in its scrip from ~1300 to meager ~170; mining stocks like Sesa Goa fell to ~60. But, I couldn't understand why the investors were in such a panic that they gave away such heavyweights at such low levels. The scrips saw a beating of almost daily 5% fall on a daily basis.

This is why I mentioned "Get some steel in your lives", that was the time to enter to really quadruple, quintuple your money and everybody who invested then could have visibly started noticing the results now. Both Tata Steel and JSW Steel have moved thick and fast from then on (575 and 920 respectively) and imagine the time they could have taken to get there - 6 months. And the kind of dividend Tata Steel pays, picking it for 150-250 was a real good deal - it paid as much as 160% dividend this year i.e. Rs.16/- per share. The dividends paid by it has been on a yearly basis and on an average its dividend yield has been around 150% for the past five years. Nevertheless Tata Steel still remains in quandry till it reinstates the glory of Corus which still remains a worry for investors, it has a quantum upside if it can get rid of the worrisome Corus story.

Cyclical story
Let me explain what 'cyclical' means before proceeding with the details. A cyclical is a commodity which has a upside and a downside and this continues to happen in cycles and the reason why steel falls in this category is because of the demand-supply. Every once in four years, if we could have witnessed as and when Olympics/Commonwealth or such an event is round the corner, the nation hosting it would take tremendous initiatives to boost infrastructure and this is when there'll be a real demand creeping in and the metals especially steel industries emerge strong from there and there are times when they take the path of trough and literally "melt" - that is why we call it a meltdown :) but remember a buying opportunity for sure shouldn't be missed, they'll be available at a discount of 60-80% very much "mouthwatering".

So, the next time you get such a golden dip in your lifetime, if at all it does be ready with grabbing such opportunities - buying into steel, getting some steel into your lives that can make you feel much more stronger once you edge-past the meltdown.

Wall axed by the axe effect again

Dravid in news again for a wrong reason - scores in the recent past a 39, a 40 and a 76 and what followed was an axe - one more axe in the wall.

Nevermind, he's is a person of character, for he'll find solace in being simple and more importantly professional in dealing with what I call a biased set of selectors as he's always kept doing throughout his career. Dravid could have easily surpassed and be well ahead of Tendulkar in ODI overall score, had he been retained in the side for a long time, he was axed so many times that today he feels such criticism is a part of his life. The debates continue to happen - Dravid's supporters v/s Tendulkar's supporters, this too shall not stop. The gamut of Tendulkar supporters after reading my blog till this juncture would certainly feel agitated though.

"Class has been compromised yet again for poultry cricketers who neither are consistent nor have the class anywhere near", thanks to Lalit Modi - the Marwari who could help the selection committee find such talents through his so called brainchild - the IPL. Literally, Lalit Modi - a Marwari businessman with business in blood and bloodstream could mint money, hoarding from the franchisees.

I couldn't find a reason why Ravindra Jadeja was picked by dropping Abhishek Nayar and the latter wasn't given enough chances to prove himself and the former despite giving poor show was called up. Irfan who was lot better allrounder when compared to Yusuf and Jadeja was overlooked upon such blindly. Honestly this is the time I feel Dravid should retire from all the forms of cricket, for his absence shall leave a lacuna that could never be filled by any and rather get into commentary alike Javagal Srinath.

RIL to drive market for direction

RIL has been in the news for a while, so much so that it has remained a silent observer/spectator as other stocks rallied past. Thanks to the Ambanis tussle, RIL has been tied to a tree, but how long is the question, it has to move.

With RIL (Reliance Industries) board of directors recommending a 1:1 bonus share, the market is soon all set to take a precarious route. How would markets defy it would be something to gaze going ahead. With around 10% of the total market cap, RIL enjoys itself to be called the "Big Brother" for BSE, nevertheless it's the big brother which would decide which way the markets are headed.

We've seen many stocks which normally tend to take a northbound journey prior to the split/bonus and thereafter collapse beyond the readjusted market value after split. But, ofcourse there've been lot many others which have doubled, quadrupled after the split/bonus issue and never came back to those levels, people kept waiting indefinitely for the stocks to take a nosedive. Some of them were TCS (split around 4-6 months back). But L&T (split almost year back), Infy (split back in 2005-06 as far as I can recall) did offer the chance for many people to enter thanks to the global downturn they were beaten down to around 600 and 1100 respectively and both the stocks have doubled from there on.

In a long run of around 2-3 years, there's no doubt RIL would definitely give good returns, but it is more of a timing issue for someone who wants to enter into RIL at this juncture. If the RIL starts climbing from its current levels to a 2600-2700 or so, it'd pull along with it the BSE and the NIFTY as it happens to be the "Supreme" stock with a nice market-capitalization. But, once the markets get there to say 5400-5500 on the NIFTY, if they get there, the markets can do a wild swing. Which way it'd swing after the RIL bonus would be uncertain. If RIL takes a nosedive after split like other traditional stocks aggravated with the Honourable supreme court giving a hearing which is not in its favour, the markets would take a sharp cut as many are expecting the correction as well, sooner or later. If RIL continues to rise after bonus issue, we might see another wild runup from 5000 to 6000 on the NIFTY much like the post election result rally that everybody saw - "Left the left", left many people who still continue to carry a pain in them that they still are left out in the rally which looks like a straight line climb which is not at all falling.

The NCD Route

With the growing volatility creeping into the IPO market related to the aggressive IPO pricing and above all, the equity market looking to get back to the dangerous levels, for players who want to park a part of their hard-earned money into more safe instruments with low-risk is a wise call. Now, for newbies, let me first explain what it actually means.

NCD means "Non Convertible Debentures" which is like a bond which are issued by private companies. Although, risk is involved here as well like in equity market, the risk will be lower as they give guaranteed returns on maturity like bonds. NCDs come in varied options like short term (3 yrs), medium term (4-5 yrs) and long term options (>5 yrs). Moreover, all these options will have varied method of payment of interest - annual, semi-annual, quarterly cummulative, semi-annual cummulative, annual cummulative etc.

The first question a newbie would ask is, why should I go for NCD when the same money can be parked in Bank Fixed Deposits. The answer is NCDs are best for those people who want to earn higher interest yield and still be on a safer and less-riskier path. Moreover, NCDs list and are traded on one of the stock exchanges - NSE/BSE. So, one can sell whole or part of NCDs and need not hold till the end of maturity period as well in which case the transaction will happen at the market determined rate.

The best NCDs available for grab recently were L&T Finance NCD, Shriram Transport Finance NCD, Tata Capital just to name a few. The next time there's a NCD, check out the company fundamentals and don't miss to invest in good NCDs.

COST: CUTTING you apart!

The bahu and Royal Gandhi seem to have been carving a way for others to follow to cut costs in unnecessary expenses as the media projects it. But, do you really believe there's any COST CUTTING. Nope, indeed it's the reverse, COST: it is CUTTING you apart.

What a gimmick? I'd indeed try to expand what does the latest "COST" drive actually mean. Fellowmen, it's the "COngress STunt: CUTTING you apart". It actually is a COngress STunt. When Royal Gandhi boards a train travelling in Sleeper class and not accompanied by anybody, then it'd have indeed been a cost cutting. When he boards a train, that too in a AC compartment of Shatabdi Express, and is accompanied by a whole bunch of security who are royally paid (indirectly happen to travel in AC as well), whole bunch of security at both the source and destinations, the roads that might have been blocked for the neta, where's the heck of cost cutting coming from. When the common people like you and me have to wait at a traffic signal hours till the neta passes by, other trains getting delayed till the neta exits from the railway station, where's the cost cutting coming from? How do "10 Janpath Royals" (by the way is the 9th team in the next IPL ;-) not led by Shane Warne though) claim that they are on a drive to cut costs.

Don't be fooled by the stunts of the latest austerity drive. It's actually the COST that's ripping us apart. Watch the prices skyrocketing like it'll be the next moon mission CHANDRAYAAN III of the Kangres party. Sugar is nearing the 40 mark wow, stupendous figures! And our Royal Gandhi, pota of the param poojya eternal soul is doing stunts.

Swashbuckling Tata Motors

Tata Motors has been one of the prime companies in focus from the past one year or so. The hype initially started with the motors showcasing the Nano. As Ms.Mamata Banarjee's protest continued in Singur, it came as a major roadblock to the profitability of the company and it was left in choppy waters. Tata Motors collapsed from Rs.450/- a share to a meager Rs.122/- in flat 2 months. The company swung into losses since then and Ratan said, "Pull the trigger or move the gun away, the head is not going to move". Tata Motors also had been under pressure for the much over-hyped JLR Deal which cause potential concerns among the investors.

Tata Motors raised funds by providing 3 yrs short term fixed deposits to pay back the debts. Motors didn't stop at Singur, they've moved a long way since then. The spectacular run we saw on the Tata Motors stock in the last 2-3 months or so back from those 150 odd levels to 570 was not lead only by the "Nano". I feel the company saw its revival from the "ACE". Where the rest of the Mahindras and the Tempos and the Forces tried to capture the small-truck market, they couldn't compete with the ACE for the sole reason that ACE being a four-wheeler was a vehicle with balance, which could be loaded with tons. ACE was rightly termed "Aapka pyaara sa chota haathi" (your dear elephant cub). Since the launch of the Ace, it has captured a lot in that segment.

Tata Motors has undergone such a cyclical revivals every 10 years or so and evertime it has sprung back stronger. It will take a little more time for the company to get back to its full scale but I'm sure it'll.

A lesson for the investors, buy TELCO in dips. Whoever caught it at 150-200 levels, latch on to it. I myself regretted on selling it at around 480. :-)

Golden Sip in a Golden Dip

I'm here again this time with some "golden" thoughts of what I call a "Golden Sip in a Golden Dip". So, wondering what's the story all about?

Well the talk of the blog - It's the Indian Stock Market again. There's a reason why I'm referring to the dips of October 2008 and March 2009 as "Golden Dips". Stocks have multiplied manifold since 8k Sensex levels. There was a lifetime opportunity to invest was when the market hit 7.7k during Deepavali last year (October 2008). Similar opportunity was awarded to the people by our dear Dalal Street in March 2009. Check how deep the dips were in the image below.



Want to know the inidividual stocks which were available then:
Punj Lloyd (60 then, now multiplied 4 times)
HDIL (63 then, now multiplied more than 4 times)
JSW Steel (170 then, now multiplied 3.5 times)
Tata Motors (122 then, now multiplied 3.5 times)
MMTC (9000 then, now multiplied 3.5 times)
Axis bank (262 then, now multiplied 3.5 times)
L&T (576 then, now multiplied 3 times)
Tata Steel (148 then, now multiplied 3 times)
JSPL - Jindal Steel and Power (1000 then, now multiplied 3 times)
Rel Infra (400 then, now multiplied 3 times)
BEML (400 then, now multiplied beyond 2.5 times)
Grasim (1000 then, now multiplied beyond 2.5 times)
Siemens (186 then, now multiplied almost 2.5 times)

There are many more of them. There are even people who've made and are continue to make money out of companies which were or are at the verge of becoming extinct. However, major chunk of the the hard-earned money should be invested by buying quality stocks. No wonder, when bad time comes, even these companies will be toiled and foiled. You won't get it at a discounted price at other times as in the case of the "Golden Dips". Many kept waiting that the sensex would go to 5k-6k, they kept on waiting and some of them are continuing to wait, such opportunities are difficult to catch and I remember from my experience, the quality stocks were available dirt cheap, they had been beaten down as if they wouldn't witness their past highs again. The people who courageously invested during that time would be enjoying "Golden Sips" after having bought during "Golden Dips". Many people who dared to buy didn't buy for a horizon of overnight or month, they bought it for a horizon of multi-years. I'd say if one missed the "Golden Dip", he/she has to get ready with the next "Golden Dip" and I don't know when it's gonna happen next.

PSUs like NHPC and BSNL IPOs are on the track next. Let's try our luck on buying them!!!! :-) It's my personal take not to go for other private IPOs by the way, I remember the Reliance Power IPO very well, one of the disastrous IPOs of all time, started at 400 odd, battered all the way to 75!!

We are just getting into a phase of a feeling where we can call this as the beginning a new bull market and that almost we are out of the bear market. The bull that is going to come next time will be a big bull which shall take us past the 21k decisively. I wonder why 30k won't be possible. So, go long on the stocks and if you've picked up bluechips like the ones I mentioned above, there's no reason to worry.